While I have no power to implement this type of theory, I propose a 4-plus rotation. The idea behind the 4-plus rotation is fairly simple. First, four quality starters is easier to find than five. Second, pitchers like routine. Why not keep your best pitchers on their routine that keeps them comfortable, happy and as productive as possible. Third, a 4-plus rotation gets your ace on the mound more, always a good thing. Fourth and last, the “-plus” portion of the rotation allows for the coddling of young pitchers that so many teams are in favor of.
The system is simple. Your #1 starter pitchers every 5 days. If there are days off, delays, canceled games, it doesn’t matter. Every 5th day, your ace takes the bump. Your #2 starter then follows him, #3 and #4 follow suit. When there is a day-off, the rotation flips over back to #1 without the need for a #5 starter. Occasionally, there’s no day off and that where the “-plus” comes in.

In a way, this theory was inspired by one of my favorite Giants as a kid, Scott Garrelts. Never a horse who could rack up 200 innings in a season, Garrelts was equally effective as a starter and as a reliever. In 1986, he truly filled the role of swingman for the Giants:

Garrelts combined for only 173 innings while having a significant impact on the rotation as well as the bullpen. While he was an effective starter, getting the 35 games in the bullpen would be far more valuable than a potential 12 more starts.

To consider the modern Giants, this 4-plus rotation would benefit the team is a few possible ways. First, Lincecum and Cain would get 36 starts, 5 more each than the 31 starts a 5-man rotation affords. Bumgarner would also see the hill 5 more times. In the #4 spot, an injured Vogelsong would be replaced by Barry Zito. When a fully healthy rotation is ready to go, the hot hand grabs the 4th spot while the odd man out helps the bullpen.

The Giants and their aces are an easy argument for this rotation as everyone would love to see the big three as often as possible, but what about the idea of coddling young arms. Take the Rays as an example. Matt Moore is the young phenom, not accustomed to the rigors of the Major League season. Could placing him in that swingman slot save his arm while allowing him sufficient experience as a starter? The team could still utilize his game-changing talent out of the bullpen without needing to shut him down completely come September.

Cincinnati is another prime example with Aroldis Chapman. Ready to join the rotation, the Red bullpen is decimated by injury at this point. By placing Chapman in the swing slot, you gain his arm in the bullpen for the first half of April, allowing others to recover and restore their role in the bullpen. Over the course of the season, Chapman is available to take pressure off the relievers while stretching his arm out to build towards becoming the front of the rotation starter the Reds hope he can be.

I’m also of the belief that current pitchers don’t throw enough. A strong arm is a healthy arm, and too much rest, strict pitch counts, inning limits can lead to these weaker arms, more susceptible to long-term injury. Keep your horses pitching and I believe their arms will grow stronger and be more ready for heavy workloads.

Does the 4-plus rotation make sense? Should baseball continue down the path to a 5-plus or even six-man rotation? Will Nolan Ryan pull what little hair he has left out if the latter happens? Let me know what you think.

In case you hadn’t heard, the controversy surrounds Ozzie Guillen’s comments made to Time magazine.

I respect Fidel Castro. You know why? A lot of people have wanted to kill Fidel Castro for the last 60 years, but that son of a bitch is still there.

Time Magazine – Big Fish

Pretty ballsy comment, especially when you manage a team featuring a Cuban defector in the heart of Little Havana in Miami. But does ballsy mean you should be fired? Hardly. I read this comment and don’t even think he deserves to be reprimanded in any way.

First, let’s look at the statement itself. He “respects” Fidel Castro. Respect doesn’t mean you agree with someone. It doesn’t mean you support someone. In a way, it’s very similar to the Venezuelan-born manager’s comments about Hugo Chavez.

I like Chavez the man. I don’t say I like him politically, because I don’t agree with a lot of the stuff he does and says. But I have a right to like somebody, and I like the man. When I read about how hard he worked since he was 6-years-old to be president of Venezuela, I felt proud.

Palm Beach Post - When talking politics, Ozzie Guillen often opens mouth, inserts foot

Guillen respects and likes a self-made man. Maybe he likes another Cuban who fought the odds, who many tried to kill, but this one is an icon among the Cuban community:

Maybe Ozzie respects Fidel like so many of us are taught to respect the ocean. Not because we love the ocean and it deserves our respect, but because it can be heartless, cruel and can take your life the minute you turn your back on it.

But even if he did like Fidel Castro, is that so wrong? Politically, the United States has been softening its stance, ever so slightly, against the ailing dictator. Do children in Florida fear the ever-present threat of Fidel’s socialist uprising crossing the straits and invading Dade County? Major League Baseball has even played games in Cuba as recently as 1999 with Commisioner Selig sitting next to El Comandante.

Maybe this wouldn’t be such an issue if the Giants had offered the curve-ball specialist more than $5,000 to pursue a career in baseball instead of law. Or maybe it would be better to not ask sports figures questions about politics. Perhaps, we shouldn’t care what these sports figures say.

Maybe the best advice would be to actually pay attention to what is actually said. Guillen didn’t ask people to rise up and support a revolution in Florida, expanding the sphere of Castro’s power. He didn’t voice support for a continued Marxist regime in the island nation either. He said he respects a man for surviving despite being an enemy of the most powerful nation in the world. How many world leaders could say they accomplished such a feat?

Perhaps those who are so upset should celebrate our freedom of speech. They should be honored that we live in a society where no matter how controversial your comments might be, they can still be said without fear of retribution. Or maybe they should just get over it. Ozzie will be Ozzie and he’s always going to say stupid things. With time, the people of Florida will dismiss everything he says that doesn’t pertain to his lineup card or bullpen decisions. And Ozzie will keep on saying and doing stupid things to get us to pay attention.

]]> http://life.brewedforthought.com/?feed=rss2&p=160 0 http://life.brewedforthought.com/?p=157 http://life.brewedforthought.com/?p=157#comments Wed, 04 Apr 2012 15:30:59 +0000 Mario http://life.brewedforthought.com/?p=157 Continue reading →]]> Well, the season is here. Starting tonight, the 2012 Major League season kicks off in North America. While the A’s and Mariners have a leg up on the competition for the Cy Young, MVP, and Rookie of the Year races, I think it’s still safe to make the rest of the predictions that I left out with my division previews. So here’s my best guess at all the major awards and even a prediction for the World Series.

AL MVP: I’m going with the best player on the best team. With a new slugger protecting him and a chance to prove himself defensively, Miguel Cabrera is poised for a monster season. I see no reason why he won’t run away with this award in a league that’s struggled to identify true MVP candidates in the recent past.

NL MVP: The National League is a league of stars. Each team seems to have their shining star to build around. With that success, comes the glory. Last year Ryan Braun rode the Brewer’s success to his first MVP. 2012 may have a similar story but with more emphasis on Braun now that Prince is gone. That said, I think it will be another NL Central slugger carrying his team to victory that will get more attention, Joey Votto. With what some might consider a weaker supporting cast, Votto will fit the mold of the All-Star putting his team on his back.

AL Cy Young: As with the MVP, the Cy Young gets a boost if you’re on a winning team. Justin Verlander seems the obvious choice, but can he repeat last year’s dominance? I think we’ll see another pitcher have a career year and sneak in to beat Verlander. I like Jared Weaver in Anaheim because he has the stuff and he broke into elite territory last season. With a big contract in his pocket, the pressure is off and the offense is going to make it even easier. A gaudy win total won’t hurt either.

NL Cy Young: The National League has a lot of aces. Kershaw, Lincecum, and Halladay immediately come to mind. But the Cy Young is an odd award. In addition to the stats, you have to have some flair. While those established aces will no doubt continue to dominate, I see a youngster emerging as the top pitcher in the National League in 2012: Madison Bumgarner. This may seem like a homer pick coming from a Giants fan, but after the All-Star Break, Bumgarner went 9-4 with a 2.52 ERA and struck out a batter an inning. The training wheels are off of this 22 year-old lefty who has no-hit stuff and is poised to step out of the shadow of his two fire-balling teammates.

AL Rookie of the Year: Speaking of fireballing lefties, the Rays have another pitching phenom looking to make his name in 2012. Matt Moore was a strikeout machine in 2011, striking out 225 batters across AA, AA and the majors, all in less than 170 innings. With a spot in the Rays rotation, Moore looks to continue throwing mid to high 90′s heat by batters and should be a standout in 2012.

NL Rookie of the Year: There’s this rookie from Cuba that’s going to be making a name for himself in 2012. He signed a contract after defecting that had multiple teams vying for his services. This guy can really hit. No, I’m not talking about Yoenis Cespedes, I’m talking about Yonder Alonso. Traded to San Diego this off-season, Alonso is no longer blocked by MVP candidate Joey Votto and has a chance to become the keystone of the Padres lineup. While the spacious Petco Park may keep his power numbers down, Alonso is an incredible hitter and will be a bright spot the San Diego squad.

AL Manager of the Year: This award always amuses me. Win when not expected, and the award is yours. Run away with an expected tight race, and again, the award can be yours. It’s the latter reason why I think Mike Scioscia will win. The talk of the off-season has been the Angels big additions of Pujols and Wilson while the Rangers have added Yu Darvish and moved dominant closer Neftali Feliz to the rotation. I can see this one getting away from the Rangers by September. With a runaway division title over an improved World Series contender, Scioscia will get the credit of guiding one of the most talented teams in the league to victory.

NL Manager of the Year: Will the Pirates surprise us and win 82 games, earning Clint Hurdle the Manager of the Year? No. While I don’t think the Reds will have enough to catch the Brewers, I think Dusty Baker will be praised for piecing together a bullpen that’s already begun to fall apart before the season has started. An exciting race down the stretch will earn this skipper his first Manger of the Year award since 2000 and his fourth total.

Post-season predictions:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Angels
Wild Card: Rays, Rangers

ALCS: Rays (over Yankees) vs Angels (over Tigers)

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
Wild Card: Diamonbacks, Reds

NLCS: Giants (over Phillies) vs Brewers (over Reds)

World Series: Giants over Rays

I realize this may seem like another homer pick, but with the front end of the rotation the Giants have, I don’t see them getting beat in the playoffs. To get to the playoffs their offense will have to be markedly improved over 2011, and if that’s the case, the combination of rotation and shutdown bullpen will be tough for other teams to handle, just like it was in 2010.

There are my predictions. Please, let me know what your predictions are as well.

2011 NL West Standings
Arizona 94-68
San Francisco 86-76
Los Angeles Dodgers 82-79
Colorado 73-89
San Diego 71-91

The Diamondbacks were a huge surprise in 2011. Many predicted they would finish in 4^th or last in the division. Instead, Justin Upton became the superstar caliber player many had predicted when he was drafted #2 overall. Additionally, Arizona’s pitchers had an amazing year, lead by aces Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. In the offseason, the Diamondbacks added slugger Jason Kubel and traded for lefty starter Trevor Cahill while also plugging in veterans into their bullpen. The cost was a lot of youth, but the team is young and primed to make a push at repeating as division champs.

The Giants story of 2012 was one of injuries. Rising star Buster Posey was lost for the season after a collision at the plate. All-Star Freddy Sanchez soon followed. As the season slipped away closer Brian Wilson and newly acquired Carlos Beltran would also join the walking wounded. With a pitching staff still intact from the season before the offense was the focus on efforts though the winter. Added to the mix in the outfield were Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan, a move to bring youth and athleticism to an aging team. Gone are Jonathan Sanchez and Andres Torres, major components of the World Champions of only two years ago, but the return of Buster Posey should provide a significant offensive spark. Will Posey and the new additions be enough to catch the Diamondbacks?

In Los Angeles, the Dodgers season played out like a Hollywood drama. The owner’s divorce and lavish spending habits crippled the team. Shady back-door deals were struck and ruled to be illegal. MAjopr League Baseball stepping in and a power struggle ensued. Meanwhile, Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw were arguably the two best players in all of baseball at what they do. The rest of the team left a lot ot be desired and the Dodgers struggled to stay at .500 all season.  With the budget still impacted, not much changes for 2012. Many names changed places, but will Mark Ellis make the team a contender? Aaron Harang? The potential is there for a run at the playoffs but the ownership soap opera needs to come to an end first.

Colorado expected to be players in the NL West race but quickly faded when ace Ubaldo Jimenez failed to live up to the label and rising prospect Jorge De La Rosa had season-ending surgery. Can All-Stars and MVP candidates Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez stay healthy anchor an offense likely to be the best in the division? The rotation is a big question mark with no true structure from #1 through #5.

Down at the bottom were the San Diego Padres. Two years ago this team took the Giants to the last game of the season before being eliminated. In 2011, with slugger Adrian Gonzalez headed for Boston and closer Heath Bell counting the days to his departure, the season never seemed to get going for them. The season wasn’t a complete loss. Cameron Maybin found his potential as the everyday centerfielder. For 2012, the Padres hope the off-season deals that sent away Mat Latos and Anthony Rizzo (key component of the Gonzalez deal one year prior) can bolster a squad with its eyes on the future.

With that all said, here’s my prediction for 2012:

San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego

I’m a bit biased, but I think the Giants, especially when healthy, are the team to beat. The team still looks a lot like the squad that won the World Series. Madison Bumgarner is primed to join Lincecum and Cain atop the rotation. Posey is a big addition to the lineup, but more significantly, the lineup can’t get much worse than it was in the late summer of 2011. While getting significantly less hype than the rotation, the Giants bullpen may be the best in baseball. Wilson, Romo, Lopez, Affeldt and Casilla can shorten a game to 6 or 7 inning quickly.

Arizona is young and the moves they made would imply they are improving, but I would argue they may have taken a half step back. Kubel may not be better than  Parra in left field. Is Cahill a top of the rotation starter giving the Diamondbacks a trio to compete with the Giants or will he be an interchangeable part at the back of the rotation? In 2011 the Diamondbacks went as Justin Upton went. In 2012, this may be the case again, but he will need help in a tough division.

Colorado’s rotation will be a big question all year, but they’ve never had a true ace. The bullpen will be the bigger factor in their success. While the humidor has kept scoring down, series in the thin air can still be exercises in attrition. The offense has the bats to buy the staff some breathing room, but they still need to hold the lead late. I think they’ll do a fair job of it, but not good enough to really compete.

In 2011, Clayton Kershaw was worth 7 games over replacement according to Baseball-Reference.com. Kemp was worth 10 wins. Without their stars, the team, in theory, would have won 65 games. While the names may be different, the Dodgers look more like the Padres with two superstars than a team looking to win a division. There is a glimmer of hope though, as those stars are still on the roster. Andre Ethier and James Loney will be playing for contracts as will others who have been brought in to fill holes. Can dreams of big paydays inspire this team to victory? It’s happened in the past.

I mentioned the Padres above, and the biggest difference between them and the Dodgers are the two superstars. Yonder Alonso could be a star and Edinson Volquez was an ace at one point. If Quentin finds his stroke again, this team could be ready to win a few games. Unfortunately, the budget doesn’t allow for the big mid-season addition the team may need to really compete. Still, the Padres could be one of the tougher last place teams in the National League.

I’m sure you are all wondering what happened. I was heading to Cloverdale for a meeting. Just north of Windsor while in the fast lane I hit a slick spot or something and the car pulled quickly to the left. At this point of the freeway, there is an earthen median. The shoulder starts less than 6 inches off of the painted line. When the car pulled to the left, my left front wheel caught the mud and pulled me farther left. I turned right to correct but over-corrected. Beginning to drift I corrected again, switching the direction of the drift. When the front wheels left the pavement again, the car dug in and I hit the median head-on. The rear end kept going forward and the car bounced off the median again on the rear passenger corner before coming to a stop.

I was terrified at first as I could see a few cars behind me, I thought I had caused a pile-up. Thankfully no other accidents resulted. Despite a shower of dirt applied to the freeway, everything was ok.

I was perfectly fine, spare a few bumps and aches. After CHP arrived I was asked to move the car to the shoulder and discovered the engine was still running fine, no leaks, nothing visibly wrong.

Audrey was riding shotgun with me at the time and despite some dirty looks, didn’t seem to be too concerned with the whole incident. Once on the right-hand shoulder she went back to her busy schedule of sleeping the day away.

The CHP was very helpful. Before anything they put in a call to AAA for me. No report was needed as the damage to the barrier was minimal and no other cars were involved. The officer waited along the shoulder as I waited for the tow.

Upon arrival at Guanella, the estimator took one look and told me the car was totaled. The frame was bent and that alone meant the work was worth more than a 14 -year-old car.

So it was on March 19th, 2012 that I closed the chapter on the third car in my life. My first was an ’88 Monte Carlo in high school followed by a my ’89 Accord in college and for some time after. Of the three, I owned the Corolla the longest, just about 8 years. It was the first car I bought and paid for 100% out of my pocket.

Now, it’s time to start shopping for a new ride.

2011 AL West Standings
Texas 96-66
Anaheim 86-76
Oakland 74-88
Seattle 67-95

The Rangers are coming off back to back World Series appearances. In the offseason they lost their “ace” but added Japanese import Yu Darvish and moved closer Neftali Feliz to the rotation. Last year’s converted started Alexi Ogangdo heads back to the bullpen to join new arrival Joe Nathan, who will take over closing duties. Is there a third World Series in the cards for the Rangers?

In Anaheim, the big splashes were made with Albert Pujols and stealing away rival Texas’ number one starter C.J. Wilson. Behind these two the team remains relative unchanged. An aging outfield should receive a shot of youth with the arrival of prospect Mike Trout. You have to wonder how much time will he get with so much money dedicated to Hunter, Wells and Abreu. First base also has a similar backlog with the arrival of Pujols. Behind Prince Albert are Mark Trumbo and Kendry Morales, both young and with proven 30 homer power. Can the Angels make the tough decision and bench a player with a big contract for one of these younger players? The rotation for the Angels is stacked with Cy Young contender Jared Weaver at the top and a rotation of Two’s after him in Wilson, Santana and Haren. The fifth spot is up for grabs, but this team is relying on a strong offense, front-end starters and a young but promising bullpen to win more than enough games.

The Oakland A’s had a promising start to the 2011 season but watched it all  slip away in a 10 game losing streak that cost them their manager as well as any shot of making a run at the West. For 2012, the A’s return few stars having traded All-Stars Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey while other recognizable names left via free agency. Stepping into the void are Cuban phenom Yoenis Cespedes and Manny Ramirez. Players like Seth Smith and Josh Reddick look to prove themselves in new surroundings haven being given the reins of a team in need of on-field leadership. The outlook for this team is quite dire but the attitude coming from Oakland is that they made moves they are excited about.

In Seattle, 2011 was a lost season. The major move of the winter was a deal sending last year’s breakout star, Micheal Pineda, to the Yankees for catching and hitting prospect Jesus Montero. Otherwise the anemic lineup is set to return. On the pitching side, many changes were made, but few merit significant attention if any at all. Can (insert name) return to form and provide one more productive season or will they fail to make the team out of Spring Training. This is a question that can be asked of a number of Mariner’s players. With Montero, Ackley, Carp and Smoak ready to play a full season together, the offense could improve quickly, but contention is likely out of reach for the Mariners in 2012.

With only four teams, it’s time to make a prediction for the AL West:

Anaheim
Texas
Oakland
Seattle

This division is really about making two decisions: who will finish first and who will finish last. The Angels and Rangers are the only contenders in the divsion and even a worse case scenario should have them 10 games ahead of Seattle or Oakland. For those teams, a best case scenario may place them near .500, but reality is that these teams will fight to avoid losing 100 games. At least they have each other to play throughout the season.

I picked the Angels to win simply because I think their pitching and depth will be too much for the Rangers to handle. The Rangers have significant depth as well, but the rotation doesn’t inspire fear in the opposition. Colby Lewis will be the Opening Day starter and would likely be the 5th starter in Anaheim. Holland and Harrison have the potential to become the next aces in Texas, but until that happens, it’s an if. In Anaheim, only Santana carries the same questions but he’s won 16 games three times, surpassed 200 innings 4 times and has a no-hitter on his resume.

On offense, both teams will score plenty, but the ability to insert one of baseball’s top prospects or established 30-home-run hitters in the event of an injury gives the Angels a significant advantage.

On the other side of the coin, the Oakland A’s look to be the more predictable of the two bottom-feeding teams. I wouldn’t expect any surprise MVP candidates from this group (though Cespedes has the potential) but this team isn’t all that young and inexperienced. Manager Bob Melvin should be able to keep this team focused enough to win 70 games.

The Mariners have incredible potential, and 2011 could be a big stepping stone to future success. Smoak, Ackley, Carp and Montero are all still very young and posses great baseball skills. If they improve upon 2012, they could be poised to compete in 2013. Unfortunately, they could also take a step backwards. Even if they reproduce their 2011 season, that team scored 556 runs, worst in the majors. This team had the advantage of a DH and failed to outscore the Giants and Padres, teams with more celebrated troubles at the plate. As a manager, Eric Wedge has lead his teams to 3 straight 90-loss seasons. I find it hard to believe that Mariner’s brass will allow him to make it to four. The Mariners could be in for a growth year with a lot of positives, or more misery.

2011 AL Central Standings
Detroit  95–67
Cleveland 80-82
Chicago Sox 79-83
Kansas City 71-91
Minnesota 63-99

The Detroit Tigers ran away with the AL Central in 2011. Their 15 game lead over the second-place Indians was the largest gap in all of baseball. Justin Verlander had a similarly easy walk to the Cy Young award, winning 24 games, including a stretch where he won 12 straight starts after the All-Star break. Verlander was so impressive he also took home the AL MVP. Slugger Miguel Cabrera, who finished 5^th in the AL MVP race, loses Victor Martinez as protection in the lineup but gains Prince Fielder and a move to 3^rd base. The changes to the team were relatively minor aside from Fielder, but this team didn’t need to change significantly from the squad that made it to the 6^th game of the ALCS.

Remember when the Indians were running away with the AL Central in 2011? On the first days of May and June, the Indians held the best record in all of baseball. On July 21^st the Tigers would pass them in the standings and not give back the divisional lead. The mid-season acquisition of Ubaldo Jimenez proved to be not enough to stay in the race as the Tigers distanced themselves from the pack. Much of the same squad returns in 2012 with youngsters Kipnis and Chisenhall hoping to build on their late season call-ups. Often injured star Grady Sizemore is hurt once again and rotation staple Fausto Carmona ( aka Roberto Hernandez) likely won’t be resolving identification issues any time soon. This team has the potential to break out, but may be too young to make a true run at the post-season.

In Chicago, the biggest change from a disappointing 2011 is the departure of manager Ozzie Guillen, now replaced with long-time White Sox star Robin Ventura. Many expected sweeping changes to the team but the lineup and rotation will feature few new names that weren’t with the Sox from the end of 2011. Gone are Mark Buehrle, Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin, each having provided significant contributions to the rotation, bullpen and lineup respectively. The potential to compete in a weak division may still be there, but it’s hard to see much coming from this team that has a lot of money invested in declining, old or simply mediocre players.

In Minnesota, the Twins made a big splash to start the 2010 season by locking up star catcher Joe Mauer. Since then, Mauer has done little to return the favor for Ron Gardenhire and the rest of the Twins squad. Equally devastating to the Twins hopes have been a series of concussions that have sidelined slugger Justin Morneau. While many moves have surround the rotation and the starting lineup, the Twins go as their stars go. If Mauer and Morneau can find a way to play in 135 games each, the Twins should have a chance. If not, then don’t expect much noise to come out of Target Field.

Kansas City gets a bad reputation. Typically identified as an example of why the financial structure of baseball is broken, the Royals continue to finish near the bottom of the standings and prove unable to keep their stars, what few they have. For 2012, the lineup returns relatively intact and the rotation adds Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants. While Sanchez cost the Royals Melky Cabrera, the spot allows young prospect Lorenzo Cain to prove his worth in Center Field. The Royals are young and feature a lot of upside in raw, athletic prospects around the diamond. Can the youngsters take the next step? There’s a crop of even younger players knocking on the door with significant upside, so the Royals have a reason to be excited. No guarantee that excitement can turn into wins.

As I see it, the 2011 AL Central will finish like this:

Detroit
Cleveland
Kansas City
Chicago Sox
Minnesota

The Tigers are good. The Tigers are really good. They can hit and pitch and have youth inserted around the team to provide improvement where their acquisition of veterans might have fallen short. This should be another easy season for the Tigers, even if they face another tragic injury such as the one to Victor Martinez. Cabrera and Fielder will make for the most exciting hitting duo in baseball and Verlander is in his prime. Circle these games on your calendar when the Tigers come to town.

The rest of the division is a different story. In 2011 only the Tigers finished above .500 and the feat may be accomplished a second time in 2012. The Indians should improve by having a healthy Shin-Soo Choo and young prospects Kipnis and Chisenhall should establish themselves as the next generation of Indians stars, but this team lacks the elite players to compete for a playoff spot. The Royals  will be an exciting team to watch with youth at nearly every position. I expect a big jump in the level of play from the Royals, but that still only leaves them at the .500 mark, if that.

Not long ago, Chicago and Minnesota ran the Central. Now, both teams look to be headed in the wrong direction. Chicago needs to rebuild, but still has expensive contracts to aging stars that take up financial resources as well as playing time. The White Sox need to hit on a prospect that they can build around, but is Dayan Viciedo that player? Alejandro De Aza? The Twins on the other hand have two faces to their franchise in Morneau and Mauer. While each season gives the hope of a healthy campaign, Morneau is not the hitter he once was and Mauer’s one-year power surge seems to be a statistical deviation. This team will likely repeat the last place finish of 2011 and may cross over into 100-loss territory.

2011 Standings
Milwaukee 96-66
St. Louis 90-72
Cincinnati 79-83
Pittsburgh 72-90
Chicago Cubs 71-91
Houston 56-106

The Brewers were facing the most questions just last week, but with Ryan Braun winning his appeal, the Crew is set to begin life without the Prince. What the Brewer’s still bring to the table is an extremely talented, yet streaky, top three of their rotation. It was the pitching that let this team down in the playoffs, never once allowing the Brewers to get to an early lead an coast to victory. Alex Ramirez replaces Fielders bat in the lineup and Mat Gamel will have a chance to prove he’s as good as once advertised. The Brewers should be in position to repeat, but there were other moves made in the Central.

The Cardinals may be facing the biggest changes despite being the reigning World Champions. Gone is the face of the franchise in Albert Pujols and gone is their Hall-of-Fame bound manager, Tony LaRussa. Carlos Beltran was brought in to help soften the blow of losing Pujols, but I never thought the Cards were that invested in the first baseman after 2011. This team now belongs to Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. World Series hero David Freese mans third base while Allen Craig should get a lot of at bats as the power bat off the bench and backing up a trio of 30-somethings on the remaining corners. The starting pitching will be the biggest question here. Can Carpenter put together another ace-like season? Will Wainwright pick-up where he left off? Will the back end of the rotation do enough to keep their heads above water?

Cincinatti has the benefit of being able to answer the question about first with MVP candidate Joey Votto. This team is built to hit with powerful, exciting bats at most positions. A young and talented outfield could explode into a trio of stars, or could frustrate by not fully living up to potential. The addition of Mat Latos to the rotation gives the Reds a solid rotation which is similar to their outfield. The talent is definitely there, but will they turn it into big league success. A retooled bullpen now features Ryan Madson as the closer and Sean Marshall to bridge the gap. Will Cuban phenom Aroldis Chapman make the rotation or go back to the pen as a fire-balling setup man? This is the wild card for the Reds that could lead to big changes and a possible return to the playoffs.

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992, when Barry Bonds played left field for a team that made it to the NLCS. Since then, times have been tough. I wouldn’t expect 2012 to be much better. Eric Bedard and AJ Burnett hope to save their careers with good seasons, but the truth is this team has a couple nice players, but mostly a roster indicative of poor management and a poor ability to identify talent. Burnett is a great example. A once promising arm that never put it all together for a full season, Burnett was paid ace money despite not being an ace. After flaming out in New York, the Pirates took a flier on the 35 year-old right hander since the Yankees were willing to pick up most of the tab. Unfortunately, Burnett will either succeed and demand his way out of town or he will continue to fade into his twilight, wasting a spot in the rotation that could otherwise be used on a young player with promise of helping turn the franchise around. Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker should be fun players to watch, but don’t expect much from this team.

In Chicago, big things were promised this offseason. In came Theo Epstein to try and win a title for another long suffering city. Unfortunately, Theo has quite a mess to clean up. Gone is slugging third baseman Alex Ramirez, as well as the headache of Carlos Zambrano. New faces include David DeJesus, Ian Stewart and a pair of young first basemen with potentially big bats. While there is plenty of potential to improve on a 91 loss season, the Cubs have a long way to go. Alfonso Soriano is no difference maker in left and is cashing big checks. Starlin Castro could be a star, but pending legal problems could be a distraction. The Cubs lack a true ace and the farm system doesn’t appear to be working on one. While I think this team can be better than last year, the ceiling remains fairly low for a team lacking true star power.

The Houston Astros will only be in the space one more time before departing for the American League next year. Easily the worst team in all of baseball last year, the Astros have done little to improve for 2012. The best case scenario would be that the young players should play better, but that can only get you so far when you trailed the next worst team in the sport by 7 games. When I said the Cubs lacked star power, the Astros lack stars and will struggle to produce a worthy All-Star come July. Mediocrity reigns on the Houston roster. It will be a long 2012.

Here are my 2012 NL Central predictions

Milwaukee
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh
Houston

The Brewers have a really good team with a balance of pitching and hitting that will be tough to beat. They won 96 in 2011 and I don’t think they got the most out of their top three starters. Losing Fielder will hurt but the improved bullpen will help this team win more games than the minor downgrade from Fielder to Ramirez will cost them. The Reds should challenge the Brewers but there are so many questions about how much improvement to expect from this young team. If all the chips fall into place, Cincinatti could be extremely difficult to beat.

From here the division gets bad quickly. While the Cardinals are the defending champions, they are also very old. This team could see significant regression in 2012 and it will be frustrating for fans to watch. The Cubs are on the right path but need to add some big ticket items in the next offseason to propel them into the winning side of the standings. The Pirates and Astros are just not good teams. The Pirates captured something in the first half of 2011 but it is now long gone with management making poor decisions and putting the team back on the same trajectory.

2011 Standings
NY Yankees 97-65
Tampa Bay 91-71
Boston 90-72
Toronto 81-81
Baltimore 69-93

The Yankees had a glaring problem in 2011, despite pacing the American League with 97 wins. The starting rotation was a mess. Behind their big bodied horse C.C. Sabathia, the back of the rotation had little to offer. Ivan Nova was a huge surprise and helped keep things from falling apart, but the rest of the rotation was unreliable and scary many days. To fix the problem, the Yankees have brought in Hiroki Kuroda from the Dodgers via free agency and traded for youngster Micheal Pineda. While the bullpen may still be a bit erratic, Mariano Rivera is still the ninth inning man. At 42, he’s only had an ERA over 2 once in the past 9 seasons. I’m not ready to bet against the greatest closer of all time.

Down in Florida, many expected a flurry of trades with Upton and Shields being juicy pieces of bait to bring in more young talent. Instead, the Rays had a relatively quiet off-season. Carlos Pena is back at first base and other minor moves were made to bolster the roster’s depth. With a full season of Matt Moore in the rotation, the Rays could be a tough team to hit and still have the ability to put up runs on the board. Will it be enough in this division?

The Red Sox had a collapse unlike any other in the history of baseball in 2011. Not only was it of grand scope, it was also dramatic, culminating in a last day elimination and a shake-up that saw the GM and Head Coach both find their way out of town. In comes Bobby Valentine at the helm, Andrew Bailey as the closer and gone are long time Sox’s Papelbon, Wakefield and Varitek. This team didn’t need to make sweeping changes as the talent is there. Will Bobby-V be able to put it together after so many years away from the Majors Leagues? That will be the real story in Boston.

The Blue Jays actually finished 2011 at the .500 mark. In most other divisions, that would be seen as a sign that they’re ready to spring into contention. Not so fast. The Jays are a lot of question marks. Will MVP candidate Jose Bautista have any help in the lineup? Brett Lawrie looks like a star in the making, but can catcher JP Arencibia and first baseman Adam Lind turn the corner and be more than one-dimensional sources of power? The Jays bullpen last year was one of the worst in baseball, blowing 25 saves in 58 opportunities. There have been some changes to the pen, but will it be enough?

The Baltimore Orioles have been the perrneial losers in the East for some time now, with 4 straight 5th-place finishes and not having posted a winning record since 1997. Don’t expect much more in 2012. The roster is un-inspiring with few bright spots aside from Adam Jones. Matt Weiter, Nick Markakis and the oft-injured Brian Roberts provide the promise of excellent play but usually fall short and contribute to the general mediocrity on display at Camden Yards. J.J. Hardy was a nice surprise in 2011 and was rewarded with a contract extension. Always a powerful bat at shortstop, his ability to reproduce the success of 2011 will be key for the Orioles. On the pitching side there is a lot of youth, but not a lot of excitement. The Orioles need to focus on small steps in 2011, identifying a direction, and hopefully executing that plan.

My predictions for the 2012 AL East are as follows:

New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

More of the same, huh? The Yankees are going to be very tough. The rotation was weak last year but the offense powered them to 97 wins. Nova and Pineda may be the next generation of arms for the Bronx Bombers. Some may say that money is what propels this team, but the truth is, Brian Cashman is a smart baseball man. Identifying the right players, making the right moves, this is why the Yankees win. There’s a stark difference between a team like the Yankees trading away A.J. Burnett and a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates trading for A.J. Burnett.

Tampa continues to make smart moves and play off their existing (and affordable) strengths. Can they improve on 91 wins? Maybe, but they shouldn’t back slide. The Red Sox worry me. I can see another collapse in the cards with a shaky rotation and an increasingly thin lineup. Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis are still grown-ass men in the middle of that lineup and that will win a lot of games. The Blue Jays may be able to capitalize on the chaos in Bean Town, but unless all the young hitters come into their own (in which case, look out Tampa), the Jays won’t have enough to push into the 3rd place position in this division. Finally, the Oriloes are not doing anything inspiring with their roster and look directionless. The ballpark is beautiful, but that only gets you so far.

The NBA Players’ Association reportedly reminds its rookies every year that 60 percent of NBA players go broke five years after their last basketball-related paycheck

Toronto Star – NBA players’ financial security no slam dunk

The source of that last bit of information is four years old, so this is not a new problem. The question is, what is the NBA doing about this? Is it a problem for the league? 

That last question was rhetorical, because if you answered “no” you would be wrong.  Retired basketball players will always be ambassadors for the NBA. To see them struggling financially sends a message to fans as well as kids. Major sports are constantly competing for the pool of athletes. To see even the most successful NBA players going bankrupt could hurt the league’s ability to recruit multi-sport athletes.

But the problem extends beyond the ability to bring in the next generation of high flying athletes. The NBA is finally getting away from the Tim Donaghy scandal. Players facing financial ruin are susceptible to the lure of gamblers as well. The 1918 Black Sox were driven to throw the World Series thanks to desperate economic conditions. NBA players looking at an extremely public bankruptcy could be just as desperate.

So why would the NBA be having these problems while other leagues don’t make as many headlines? The source of players immediately comes to mind, with many NBA players coming from poor urban backgrounds. I don’t buy this as an excuse as the NFL draws from similar pools and baseball is an international sport featuring many players from third world countries.

So what can be done? The NBA needs to do more with rookies, plain and simple. An army of accountants and financial planners should be given the NBA’s stamp of approval. Players who choose to let people not qualified to manage millions of dollars should be pressured by the league to retain the services of these professionals. This should be a league-wide initiative in fact, with veterans participation being required as well.

Iverson isn’t the first mega-rich NBA athlete to go broke. Latrell Spreewell ($97M) and Antoine Walker ($108M) are two other well-known stars who have faced similar troubles. Without something being done, the NBA will continue to see more stars make headlines not related to on-court activities.