NL East

The East is the tale of two cities, Washington DC and Atlanta. The Nationals are coming off a season where they posted the best record in baseball but failed to make it past the NLDS. Staff ace Stephen Strasburg was kept under a watchful eye throughout 2012 and shut down early to preserve his arm. In 2013, the training wheel will be off and Strasburg will be expected to lead this team to another East Crown and hopefully a deep run into the playoffs. Additionally, the Nationals strengthened their rotation and bullpen and addressed minor issues within their lineup to establish themselves as clear favorites in the National League.

While the Nationals are the favorites, the Braves are certainly no slouches. In the offseason, the Braves obtained both Upton brothers to join Jason Heyward in the outfield for one of the most dangerous and talented outfields assembled in some time. Their bullpen is as deep as ever and the starting pitching looks to be a strength yet again. Can the team handle the loss of future Hall-of-Famer Chipper Jones? A Wild Card should be within their grasp, but as Chris Berman says ”That’s why they play the games.”

The rest of the East is a mess. The Phillies have talent but look very old all of a sudden. Halladay may be running out of time and the lineup that was once universally feared may be headed for the bottom half of the league. The Mets continue to make lateral moves while rebuilding without blowing up the team. The Marlins blew the team up, but still have some interesting pieces left, such as slugger Giancarlo Stanton.

1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins

NL Central

The Central is a better division in 2013 than 2012 before the season starts as they bid farewell to the Houston Astros. That said, the Central always seems to operate at a just below elite level. The red are defending champions and were set to dazzle the world with their Cuban Randy Johnson emerging from the bullpen to join the rotation, but Chapman refused the assignment and will be the league’s top lefty closer. The Reds bullpen is deep and their electric offense added Shin-Soo Choo to the top of the order but the rotation is still thin and defensively this team could be in trouble.

The 2012 Wild Card St Louis Cardinals return a strong team but can’t seem to avoid the injury bug before the season has started. Chris carpenter’s career is likely over, Rafael Furcal will miss the season with elbow surgery and Jason Motte’s and David Freese are DL bound to start the season. Can they fill the holes left by injury and free agency (goodbye Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman)?

The Brewers added Lohse and still have the look of a contender lead by Ryan Braun but the big question will be their bullpen. Having given away 11 games in the final inning last year, this team won’t do anything unless the ninth inning is fixed. John Axford has the stuff to close, but does he have the right head on his shoulders for the job.

The Cubs and Pirates round out the central and I have little faith in either. The Cubs are simply not good, and Theo Epstein is running out of time to prove he’s as smart as we all thought he was. Anthony Rizzo looks like a future All-Star and Starlin Castro is already an All-Star, but is there much else to build around? As for the Pirates, I love McCutchen, but this team is cursed. Twenty straight years of sub-.500 ball looks to be continued in 2013.

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St Louis Cardinals
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs

NL West

I’m a bit biased on this one, but I think the West is the most competitive division in baseball. Let’s start at the top with the world Champions. The Giants have won 2 of 3 World Series and bring back essentially the same team. On paper, this team has holes, but Manager Bruce Bochy has proven he’s a true factor and can manage this team to victory on even the toughest nights. The bullpen is extremely deep with four pitchers with experience closing and an ability to matchup against lefties and righties. The rotation is solid and the offense should be adequate behind MVP Buster Posey. Bochy can turn a game into a 5 inning chess match if need be and that can help cover what may be the collapse of Tim Lincecum in 2013.

To the South the Dodgers have started playing a familiar song, but have turned the volume up to the max. The best roster money can buy is starting the season with a few questions. Injuries will shelve Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and new $100M man Zack Greinke’s elbow is already a concern. The true question with this team will be chemistry and if they can win as a team. I’ve never been one to buy into the mercenary squads but the Dodgers do have the talent to be a truly dangerous team.

Stuck in the middle is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Young and revamped for 2013, this team is being written off by many as a predictable, middle of the road team. Personally I see a team that will compete every day, and in baseball, that can lead to a lot of wins. Goldschmidt will break out and become a star this year and the seemingly endless supply of young arms will bear fruit. Can they win more than 90 games? The D’Backs have the potential to be this year’s A’s, so keep an eye on them.

The bottom two teams are the Padres and Rockies. Both teams are obviously not going to win any divisions, but they aren’t pushovers either. The Padres bring a small ball, old-school mentality to the game that is fun to watch and can steal victories from complacent opponents. Unfortunately, they don’t have any true stars to lead this team and a .500 finish might be the best they could hope for. In Colorado the offense is there and they definitely have stars in Tulowitski and Gonzalez. Unfortunately, the pitching staff is a little thin. Will the pitch counts and limits on pitchers continue in 2013?

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

Playoffs

Wild Card – The Dodgers and Braves are the clear favorites here and I don’t see much competition from the next tier as both teams should have a better record than the NL Central Champion. In a one-game playoff can the Dodgers get Kershaw or Greinke slotted to pitch the must win game? Even so, will the Braves be eager to wipe away the memories of 2012’s Wild Card game? I think the mercenary’s fail to show and the Braves move on.

NLDS – Division rivals face off as the Nationals look like the team of destiny. Unfortunately, they tempted the baseball gods in 2012 implying that Strasburg would always be able to get back to the World Series. Not in 2013.

NLDS – A rematch of 2012, the Reds and Giants square off with the Giants the host this time around. More games in SF puts a bigger emphasis on defense and the Reds fall short.

NLCS – The Giants and Braves have met each other in the payoffs quite a few times since the West split, but the Giants can’t handle the onslaught of offense brought by the Braves outfielders. Giants fans bid farewell to Tim Lincecum as he’s chased off the mound in the deciding game of the series.

World Series – A rematch of 1992, the Braves and Blue Jays square off in another exciting World Series. The Blue Jays string of aces is unrelenting though and wears down the Brave’s hitters.

Remember when this happened?

(Note: My opinion as a Giants fan is that no one can beat Bruce Bochy in a short series, especially with the bullpen he has at his disposal. That said, the Braves are a better team on paper and have all the ingredients necessary to win in the post season.)

AL East

Hard to tell what the bigger story is coming out of Spring Training. Is it the eminent collapse of two of baseball’s long standing powerhouses or the rise of the Blue Jays? In the meantime, the Rays are still the Rays and the Orioles were chasing the AL East Crown up until the final day of the season.

Bautista looks to lead the Jays back to the playoffs.

The Blue Jays did make the big moves but as their trading partner this winter has proven, big moves and big names don’t always lead to success. The difference is the Jays were contenders last year until Jose Bautista’s wrist ended his season and the Jays hopes. That said, adding an elite leadoff man like Reyes in front of Bautista and Encarnacion will only improve a potent offense. Brett Lawrie is a promising youngster that could give the Jays three 30 HR bats in the middle of the order, not to mention the rest of their lineup which features Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus and J.P. Arrenciba, all capable of clearing the fences. The additions of a Cy Young winner in R.A. Dickey and one of the most purely talented pitchers in baseball, Josh Johnson, means their opening Day starter in 2012 may be a #5 in 2013. This team is stacked, especially if their bullpen can stay healthy.

As for the rest of the league, the Orioles played over their heads last year and I find it hard to imagine a repeat. The Rays have the pitching and manage to find the role players to compete. Plus, they did win 90 games last year and feature the reigning Cy Young winner and a record setting closer. The Red Sox should be better than last year, but I can’t say by how much. The rotation is thin, the lineup lacks punch and the team just seems lost. Then there’s the Yankees who are just hoping to find 9 healthy players to take the field. They’re so desperate they brought in Vernon Wells.

Here’s how I see the East lining up:

1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Boston Red Sox
5. New York Yankees

AL Central

The Tigers are awesome on paper. That’s all you need to know. They return the World Series team from 2012 but have added Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter to the mix. Verlander, Cabrera and Fielder are the same studs they’ve always been. With a questionable bullpen, they do have a weakness, but the rest of the package could be strong enough to carry them to another division championship.

Is James Shields the final piece in returning a contender to Kansas City?

The more interesting team in the central is the Royals. A busy offseason with an eye on competing has the Royals finally putting together the stockpiled youth with some proven Major League talent. Is James Shields enough of an ace to carry them? Will the youngsters take a collective step forward and improve this team by 15-20 wins necessary to talk Wild Card?

The rest of the Central is still very much the AL Central. The White Sox have a larger payroll than you’d imagine and a collection of aging stars. That said, if Chris Sale is an ace in the making and De Aza and Viciedo can improve, this team could make some noise. In Cleveland the cupboard just looks a little too bare to compete in 2013 and the same can be said for Minnesota. While they might not scare anyone, these teams shouldn’t be complete pushovers with a lot of young talents and some established stars on each team.

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Minnesota Twins

AL West

The Rangers and Angels are the new Red Sox and Yankees with the A’s doing their Tampa Bay impersonation. This division is where the focus should be in the American League in 2013. The defending division champs made their typical moves, moving around players without spending much money but have an eye on rebuilding the left side of their infield and finding more offense. Will it be enough? Can they improve on or repeat the 94 wins of 2012? Considering the Astros will be around for them to beat on in 2013, the win total could increase, but never count on winning 90 games in a Major league season to be easy.

Hamilton has 123 million reasons to smile in Anaheim. Can he make playoff hungry fans smile as well?

With their sights set on the A’s, the Angels went out and did what they do best in the offseason, spent big dollars. Trout, Pujols and Hamilton now reside in the same order and are surrounded by a very capable supporting cast. They lead the majors in runs in 2012 and will likely repeat in 2013. The question will be the starting rotation which is much less of a sure thing than the one run out last season. Is Blanton a #3 at this point in his career?

Texas is primed to be in the hunt again as well, but what do you do with the gaping hole left by Josh Hamilton? Berkman and Pierzinski are nice additions but the Rangers will need to see their rotation take a serious step forward to win the West. The talent is there, it’s just time for them to be the pitchers they’ve been advertised as.

At the bottom we have two very different teams, the Mariners and the Astros. The Mariners actually have a nice team, but nice isn’t good enough in this division. Talent wise, the Mariners are similar in many ways to the Royals, but the Royals don’t play the A’s, Rangers and Angels over 50 times on the season. The Astros are the league’s doormat, expected to lose well over 100 games. That said, they do have some ball players on their team and could be intriguing as the season progresses. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros play the role of spoiler come September as the team matures and gains experience.

And here are my AL West predictions:

1. Anaheim Angels
2. Oakland A’s
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

AL Wild Card

I have to say, I really like the 2-team Wild Card. There is so much emphasis on winning a division now that it adds excitement to the season. The Rays will be in contention for sure as they will likely push one of the top teams in baseball for the division title. The A’s will also be in the middle of it as they will have to win 90 to stay ahead of the Rangers and keep the Angels in site. These are my two picks, but there are always the other contenders.

The Royals, Orioles and Rangers all have the look of teams who could compete, but something will have to click for them to really get involved. Will Hosmer and Butler power the Royals into contention? Is Machado the Buster Posey-type player for the Orioles? Is Yu Darvish ready to be an ace in the United States? If these things happen (or some other breakouts from the members of these teams) they will be right in the middle of the Wild Card race with the A’s and Rays.

Playoffs

Wild Card game – A’s and Rays as I said, but I think the Rays lock their spot early enough to get David Price lined up for this game. Unfortunately, the A’s struggle against aces and the Rays move on.

ALDS – Two games of Verlander and only one chance for David Price to start. No we don’t see the aces duel we all want and the tigers move on.

ALDS – The Angels powered their way to October but Dickey, Johnson, Morrow are too nasty in October while the Jays lineup continues to mash.

ALCS – Two very similar teams slug it out but the comparative lack of starting depth have the Tigers playing catch-up most games. Jays find their way back to the Fall Classic for the first time in 20 years.

Blue Jays fans last memory of the playoffs

Much of the drama for this year’s classic began four years ago. Japan won its second Classic and many baseball fans will recall the Netherlands emotional victories over the Dominican Republic that gave us a Cinderella to root for and watched a favorite shrink away at the same time. The wins inspired the Dutch who now field a predominantly Major League quality roster while energizing the Domincans, who feel its time to prove their place in the baseball world. Across the board, countries are fielding more and more major league caliber squads with hopes of repeating the magic captured by the Dutch in 2009.

One week in, we’ve already seen the Dutch were no fluke. They advanced out of Pool B with a 2-1 record and proceeded to handily beat the Cubans in the first game of the Second Round. Now, one win from advancing to the Semi-Finals in San Francisco, the Dutch will face the defending champion Japanese next who survived their Round Two opener with an extra inning win against Taipei.

(Side note: The Cubans have looked very good and always do. I couldn’t help but imagine the team they could assemble if/when Cuba opens. Yonder Alonso, Yoenis Cespedes, Aroldis Champan, Kendry Morales, and many others who have come to the United States and Japan to play ball would turn the Cubans into a team as scary as the Domincans.)

On this side of the Pacific, the Italians surprised the Mexican squad with a ninth inning comeback that was as emotional as any playoff game. Following that, the Domincans pounded on the Venezuelans in a matchup of possibly the two most talented squads in the tournament. In both games, fans were showing national pride, faces painted, noisemakers in hand, flags waiving.

But in the United States, excitement for the series is still restrained. The United States team lacks two of its most valuable players in reigning MVP and World Series champion Buster Posey and possibly the best pitcher in the game, Justin Verlander. Still, analysts will claim the United States are the favorites for the tournament despite lackluster appearances in the previous Classics.

The truth is, the Unites States have a fairly easy path to San Francisco. The Canadians, Mexicans and Italians are no push-overs, but they are hardly the All-Star rosters many of the Caribbean teams are producing. They should win their Pool easily and then need to manage two wins in Miami. This is where the road becomes more difficult, but Team USA still has reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey leading its rotation.

But at the end of the day, there is a good chance Team USA does fall short. There’s also a good chance a team not from Japan wins the Classic and this could be what the Americans need in order to care about the Classic in 2017. While Ichiro can proudly claim to be a champion in the clubhouse, few Japanese players could brag to their Major League counterparts about their win. If the Domincans or Venezuelans win the classic, just about every clubhouse will have a player from that country celebrating the victory. Dominicans players made up over 10% of MLB players on the 2012 Opening Day Rosters and Venezuelans constituted nearly 8% of the players. Will Buster Posey  and Justin Verlander be able to handle 4 years of teammates like Pablo Sandoval , Miguel Cabrera and Marco Scutaro proclaiming Venezuelan dominance of the sport, not to mention their compatriots who may not have participated?  Can Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp sit out again after hearing teammate Hanley Ramirez explain how the Domincans are the best in the World?

In basketball, Team USA was humbled, leading to the second iteration of the Dream Team to form for international play. With the Japanese victories in the first two Classics, American players have been spared the chatter of a foreign country being the best at the American pastime, but will this happen again in 2013?

For now, American fans and players don’t get the World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately, that means they will be missing out on some inspired play and exciting moments. Then again, maybe that’s what we need to get into the game. Right now, Team USA is the petulant child, dismissing the accomplishments of others while using the excuse that they never really tried that hard. Maybe in 2017, the Americans show up to win. Just beware, this won’t be as easy as winning Gold in basketball, as an inspired American team will no doubt inspire the elite players from other countries as well.

McGwire would later “save baseball” with his chase of Roger Maris’ home run record. He would surpass the total of 61 home runs twice with 70 in 1998 (then the record) and 65 in 1999.

He would retire with the most impressive home run rates in the history of the game, clubbing a ball over the fence once every 10.6 times he stepped to the plate. B y comparison, Babe Ruth did it every 11.8 times he came to the plate and Barry Bonds took 12.9 appearances.
While impressive, McGwire wasn’t a great all-around player. For his career he finished with a .263 batting average and struck out nearly as often as he got a hit (1596 K: 1626 H). In fact, in seven season, McGwire would finish with more K’s thank hits, including his record breaking 1998. Hobbled by injuries, McGwire would only play more than 140 games 3 times in the final ten seasons in the Major Leagues despite playing first base, one of the least physically demanding positions on the diamond. When he was available, McGwire’s defense was anywhere from mediocre to poor.

A closer look at his career statistics only emphasizes the one-note theme of McGwire’s career. While being known as an on-base machine, McGwire only surpasses 100 walks 5 times. He also failed to turn that on-base ability into what really is important in the game of baseball: runs. McGwire surpassed the 100-run mark only three times and only in seasons in which he hit at least 50 home runs. By comparison, he scored nearly 500 runs less over his career than fellow ballot-mate Rafael Palmeiro.

The statistics show a home run hitter who did little else, but the true comparison comes when held against the peers of his time. McGwire never won an award for being the league’s MVP. In fact, over his career he would only receive a total of 3 first place votes for the award.

In my opinion, this alone is reason to make McGwire a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, if not remove his name from consideration. When you factor in the steroid accusations, you have to wonder where his career might have been without artificial aid.

Mark McGwire is not a Hall of Famer. While he wowed us with his home runs and was part of one of the most exciting summers in the history of baseball, McGwire’s career as a whole is not worth celebrating. Fans can visit Cooperstown and see the story of the late 80′s Athletics and the home run chase of 1998, and that will be enough.

President: Obama. There isn’t enough room here to make the point without pushing everything else aside. In short, Obama’s plans help the middle class while Romney’s evasive tactics hide the truth, which are plans to help the wealthy at the expense of the working class.

Senator: Feinstein. She’s a mainstay in DC for a reason. I see no reason to replace her.

Proposition 30: Yes. Governor Brown has worked hard on a plan to help our schools and balance our budget. Prop 30 is the best way to do this. Our schools are suffering most from the Republican-lead state senate’s Starve the Beast strategy and this is an opportunity to turn that around.

Proposition 31: No. The senate wants to control the budget long term even as the economy recovers. As more tax dollars become available, the services we deserve in California should be reinstated. Don’t let them intact cuts in times of lean times that cost us down the road.

Proposition 32: No. This is a scam perpetrated by big business hoping to eliminate the main political voice of the working Californian. The only groups affected by this law are labor unions. Otherwise special interests will still dominate Sacramento, but only rich individuals will be able to afford influence.

Proposition 33: No. We already shot this down in a previous election. Insurance companies will tell you they want to give a discount for continuous coverage not limited to their own company but in reality they want to charge more for those who lack continuous coverage. Trade your car for a bike? Get penalized. Give up a car in exchange for carpools and public transportation? Get penalized. We don’t need to be held under the boot of car insurance and the threat of higher rates.

Proposition 34: Yes. I have no faith in our prison system as currently constructed. Criminals are neither deterred nor rehabilitated. Stricter punishments only reinforce a broken system and what is more strict than a Death Penalty that has proven to lack and deterrent affect on crime. We need to think of a different way. Ending the Death Penalty is what California needs.

Proposition 35: No. The stricter punishments also include many more people added to the sex offender registry. Already, we see people have their lives ruined by this list due to plea bargains and unexpected consequences. Expanding the reach of this damning list isn’t the solution. This isn’t support for sex trafficking but a condemnation for the existing system. Elect judges tough on sex crimes, don’t support a law that only strengthens a broken system.

Proposition 36: Yes. Three-Strikes was meant to keep violent criminals off the streets. This fixes the wording of the law to represent the spirit of the law. Sending someone to prison for life over a minor offense is costly to the state and counter-productive when trying to rehabilitate prisoners. Let’s fix the law.

Proposition 37: Yes. Look at the labels on packaged food today. Would adding a GMO label be so difficult? The ads are deceitful. This doesn’t hurt small producers, this annoys the major food producers. The content of their food will now be known. Look at the money behind the yes and no campaigns. If this were so costly to the small guys why would they be universally for Prop 37?

Proposition 38: Yes. Schools need funding. If both 30 and 38 pass, then the proposition with the higher vote wins out. While this may make me want to vote no, we can’t afford to underfund our schools for two years due to political bickering at the ballot.

Proposition 39: Yes. Close the loophole that allows CA jobs and tax dollars to leave for other states. Its as simple as that.

Proposition 40: Yes. There is no opposition to this proposition, still a Yes vote is needed to uphold distracting policies we as Californians established in previous elections.

The first, and probably most debated question, is the post season rotation. Matt Cain is a lock for the Game 1 duties and manager Bruce Bochy has already made this announcement.

Game 2, I like seeing Zito take the mound. Since a rough outing in Houston to end August, Zito has been 5-0 in 6 starts, he’s struck out 29 in 35 2/3 innings while only walking 9. His ERA is 3.03 during that span and 3 of those runs were runners he was allowed to put on to start innings before being pulled. If Bochy just goes to the pen in those games, Zito’s ERA over that span is 2.27. The Giants have won 11 straight times when Zito has taken the mound and Zito has won in each of his last 5 starts. He’s pitching with passion and I think he deserves the ball in Game 2 in front of the San Francisco crowd.

That said, Madison Bumgarner has been the #2 on the team all season. He’s been lights out at home and scary on the road. Against the Reds, Bumgarner threw a 1-hit complete game shutout in San Francisco earlier this year. Zito has faced the Reds both at home and on the road and stymied them each time despite the Giants losing each game. While I believe Zito has earned the Game 2 start, the smart play is to put Bumgarner in front of the home crowd and hope Zito doesn’t get bit by the long ball on the road (12 HRs Allowed in 83 innings).

Game 4 is where the debate gets interesting. Time Lincecum is a 2-time Cy Young winner. He pitched one of the most amazing games I’ve ever seen when he shut down the Braves to kick-off the 2010 NLDS. Unfortunately, that Timmy is long gone. Today we have a pitcher who has failed to complete a game this season. He’s posted a Quality Start (6 innings or more, 3 runs or less) only 13 times out of 33 turns. It looked like he had turned a corner in the second half before the Diamondbacks and Padres lit him up for 12 runs (11 earned) in 10 innings over his final 2 starts. His fastball is gone, his control is erratic, and you have no idea what you’ll get when he’s on the mound.

On the other side you have Vogelsong. He’s set to take the bump tonight against the Dodgers who will likely trot their starters out for an at bat but quickly replace them with younger players. Vogelsong stumbled mightily from the m idle of August to the middle of September, watching his league leading ERA of 2.27 balloon to 3.65 over the course of 7 shaky starts. Once the Giants clinched, The Giants were able to insert a spot start and get Vogelsong a little extra rest. He’s responded with 12 solid innings, only allowing 1 earned run over his last two starts. Does shutting down the Padres mean he can tame the bats of the Nationals or Reds? We’ll see, but Vogelsong seems to be the best bet for the rotation at this point.

4 Starters – Cain, Bumgarner, Zito, Vogelsong

The Giants bullpen is a much easier call. Romo and Lopez have the back of the bullpen locked up. Santiago Casilla and Jeremy Affeldt are the tier below them. Mijares, Mota and Kontos fill in the middle. These 7 guys can finish any game as far as I’m concerned, especially if the starters can get 6 innings. Do the Giants include Hensley or Penny to provide depth? Can Lincecum help in the pen? Let’s circle back to this after the position players are determined.

7 relievers – Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Affeldt, Mijares, Mota, Kontos.

The lineup is also fairly set thanks to big performances by many of the starters down the stretch. No need to waste time when there’s no debate: Posey, Belt, Scutaro, Crawford, Sandoval, Blanco, Nady, Pagan and Pence are all in. Blanco and Nady have been a serviceable platoon in left and if that’s the big weakness on the offense, I can live with that. Hector Sanchez and Joaquin Arias are the shoe-ins as backups. Now comes the real debate as to how the roster is filled out.

11 position players – Posey, Belt, Scutaro, Crawford, Sandoval, Blanco, Nady, Pagan, Pence, Sanchez, Arias.

With three spots left, the Giants need to get the most bang for their buck. Infield depth would be a plus and Ryan Theriot has done everything he’s been asked this season, even stepping aside as Scutaro has taken a firm hold of the 2B job. A fifth outfielder is essential. Can Huff be that outfielder? Not having set foot in the field since returning, I find this to be a bit of a stretch. Justin Christian can play the field but his bat is anemic at best. Francisco Peguero has the tools to be a solid player, but does he have the experience? In the end I think it’s a risk worth taking. Peguero has speed, versatility and can swing the bat. While Huff might be more of a threat at the plate, he’s useless on the bases and in the field.

That brings it down to the final spot. Where do the Giants need the depth? Another position player helps with late inning substitutions but an extra arm in the pen can be the difference. Do the Giants keep Huff as a designated pinch hitter? Penny or Hensley could be long relievers in case a starter needs to be bailed out or simply eat innings in the case of a blowout. What about Lincecum filling that role? In the end, I think you have to go with Lincecum. He’s been tested this season but I’d still rather see him for one batter than Hensley or Penny.

3 Wild Cards – Theriot, Peguero, Lincecum.

There it is, 25 players to make a run at the World Series. I like the depth and versatility this roster provides the Giants. Late inning moves could get interesting as Bochy has the option of moving players around a bit (Belt in the OF? Posey at 1B?) and we are sure to see a lot of this bullpen.

I’m a baseball purist. I never liked the Wild Card. Even as I watched the Giants miss the playoffs despite winning 100 games in 1993, I respected the idea of a champion. If you had a problem with the system, win it all and you have no complaints. With the addition of the Wild Card I felt that division races in September were gone for good. The 1993 division race would have petered out weeks before as both the Giants and Braves would have been assured playoff spots, the champion earning little to no benefit.

With the addition of the second Wild Card, all of that has changed. Wild Card teams are at a distinct disadvantage. A one-game playoff puts everything on the line in a game where anything can happen any day. Not surprisingly, players for team who are subject to such a game are not too happy.

Additionally, teams now want the #1 seed. The first round matchup will be against a team who has to put it all on the line for the Wild Card. The ability to set your team’s rotation while your opponent scrambles to simply stay alive is an advantage unlike any other in the sport.

That brings us to 2012. Here we are, staring down the final game of the regular season there are still a lot of meaningful games to be played. Here are the significant scenarios as games get started in only a few hours.

• Texas @ Oakland – This is for the AL West Division title. Winner is the champion, the loser prepares for the Friday Wild Card game. The Division Champion also has the chance to be the number one seed.
• Boston @ NY Yankees – If the Yankees win, they are the #1 seed and AL East champions. If they lose that opens the door for the Orioles.
• Baltimore @ Tampa Bay – The Orioles can tie the Yankees with a win and a Yankee loss. If this is the case, the Yankees and Orioles play Thursday in Baltimore for the division crown.

The fun doesn’t stop there as the numerous tie break scenarios still exist for the #1 seed and homefield advantage.

In the National league, things are much simpler. The Nationals control their destiny. If they win, they are the #1 seed, but the Red are tied in the standings, so a stumble by the Nats could give the red the coveted #1 spot.

In all, there are 5 games worth watching today. All have significant postseason ramifications. There’s the potential for Thursday baseball and we already know the Wild Card games will be on Friday. Get ready for an exciting conclusion to the 2012 season!

First, we need a little background. Where were the Nationals at the beginning of the season? While the team may have expected this type of performance, the general concensus was that the Braves and Phillies were the teams to beat with the Marlins looking like a threat with their big moves.  In my prediction for the season, I pegged them at second place in the NL East and missing the Wild Card. On Opening Day, the Nationals had a full rotation and sent their 2010 Opening Day Starter and 2011 team leader in wins to AAA. In the bullpen, their lights out closer, Drew Storen, was on the Disabled List and a Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez committee was handling the ninth inning. So, how could the Nationals have handled this?

The 6-Man Rotation

Simply add Lannan back to the rotation and proceed with six starters. Theextra day of rest would help lengthen the season for Strasburg. As he took the mound 28 times in 2012, the theory would be that he would have started only 24 games so far and limited his innings by roughly 22 innings.

There’s a significant problem with this idea though. John Lannan is the 6^th best starter on your team and you’d be giving him 20 turns on the mound and sacrificing a handful of starts each from guys like Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman as well. Would a 6-man rotation have hurt the pitcher’s preparation? Would Gonzalez still be a Cy Young candidate? More pressing for the team would be the additional roster spot this would use up. Would Lannan be taking up a needed arm in the pen or a player off the bench?

The 4.5-Man Rotation

Another idea I’ve thrown out in the past is rethinking the 5-man rotation. If Gonzalez, Jackson, Zimmerman and Detwiler are all healthy and ready to play some ball, why not stretch them out and put Strasburg in the swing man slot? The benefits would be running out your 4 excellent starters an additional 3-4 starts per year, maintaining a 4-days rest schedule, but also limiting your prized possession. Strasburg’s presence in the bullpen could contribute to the closer by committee strategy or he could be the strongest bridge to the ninth inning in baseball. If used properly, the argument for a Cy Young or even MVP wouldn’t be out of line.

The issue goes back to the organizational philosophy. Would the Nationals be willing to put any of their starters under the stress of 230+ innings the 4.5 man rotation would require? A 5.5 man rotation would also be an option, but again, the issues of roster spaces come up as does Lannan getting starts that would go to better pitchers.

The Bullpen

On the surface, I think the idea of Strasburg in the bullpen is absurd. Starting pitchers are in their position because they are the best pitchers on your team. That’s why you want them out there for (hopefully) 2/3 of the game before giving way to the cast in the bullpen. Burying a talent like Strasburg in the pen would be a waste of his talents, especially given his ability to pitch 6-7 innings at a time.

That said, we’re not interested in just performance, we need to limit innings. With bullpen questions swirling, why not put another 100 mph fireballer in the mix? While Rodriguez and Lidge had a lights out Springs, Strasburg’s arm would have been welcome. When Lidge and Rodriguez both flamed out, again, Strasburg’s arm would have been welcome.

Storen would eventually return to the team in mid-July. With his return, Strasburg’s arm would be free to return to the rotation and replace the weakest link (perfect time to trade that #5?). Even the most grueling estimate would place Strasburg at 50-60 innings pitched in the first half, saving him 30-40 innings of wear. Strasburg could then join the rotation with the hopes of hitting his 160 inning limit at the conclusion of the regular season or even in the playoffs.

In case you’re wondering how a scenario like this might work, take a look at Kris Medlen of the Atlanta Braves. Medlen has Tommy John surgery in August of 2010. He came back for a brief return last September in a relief role. He started the season in the bullpen and made his first start on July 31^st. While he took a while to stretch out fully, by his fourth start he had a complete game shutout under his belt and threw another complete game three starts later. Medlen has pitched a total of 110 innings so far in 2012 and at this moment is the best starter on the Braves’ staff (7-0, 0.81 ERA, 53/7 K/BB, 55.2 IP since joining the rotation).

Now, it can’t be assumed that Strasburg would have pitched as well as Medlen, but the ability for a pitcher whose injury and recovery were so similar to be so effective and strong on the mound can’t be ignored.

In the end, I feel the Nationals have mishandled this situation from the start. Their plans were short-sighted all along. With the decisions made and Strasburg done for the year, there’s nothing else to be done, but this is a situation that easily could have been avoided.

The argument for shutting down Strasburg is simple, he’s coming off Tommy John surgery and they want to protect his arm. Two years removed from surgery and 12 months from returning to the diamond, the Nationals believe there’s a 160 inning threshold for the arm and don’t want to risk his future.

Now I’ll explain why this makes no sense at all.

First of all, the number one concern in all professional sports is money. The Nationals need to protect their investment. Problem is, the Nationals aren’t on the hook for any contract beyond 2012. While they’ve paid Strasburg a significant amount to sign with the team out of college, that contract has paid for itself in attendance, television and merchandise. To shut down the best pitcher on the team threatens money that could be made in a potential World Series run or championship.

Historically, the National franchise was formerly the Expos franchise. The last time this team had dreams of the World Series, Major League Baseball’s players made sure that wouldn’t happen and canceled the Fall Classic preferring to stay at home in the last work stoppage baseball has seen. Since then, the Expos and Nationals have done little to suggest they were interested in post season baseball. The strike was a catastrophe for baseball, but Mike Rizzo might be worse. Shutting down Strasburg is a gut shot for everyone, Nationals fans, Nationals players, fans around the country as well as baseball’s potential October ratings.

But this is a person’s arm we’re talking about. We need to think about his health. Doctors have proof that this is the correct method that will lead to a long career, right? Actually, that’s not right. There is no medical study or proof that 160 innings will ensure the health of a pitcher’s arm.

Matt Morris had Tommy John surgery early in his career and missed the 1999 season, returning in the middle of the 2000 season in a relief role. In 2001 the Cardinals took the training wheels off his arm and Morris responded with 22 wins and a 3rd Place finish in the Cy Young race. He also threw 200 innings in 4 of the next six seasons.

But the Nationals have experience, they shut down Jordan Zimmerman in 2011 following Tommy John and he’s completely recovered in 2012 and not on a pitch count or set to be shut down. That would make sense as an argument but the Nationals haven’t treated Zimmerman and Strasburg the same.

In 2011, Zimmerman threw 161-1/3 innings, averaging 15.3 pitches per inning. For the year he threw 2,468 in-game pitches. He eclipsed 100 pitches 7 times, but never eclipsed 110 pitches. Strasburg averages 16.3 pitches per inning this season and has thrown 150-1/3 innings. As of today, he’s thrown 2,450 pitches on the season. He’s eclipsed 100 pitches 10 times and 110 pitches twice, topping out at 119.

The burden placed on Strasburg’s arm has equalled Zimmerman’s in less starts and each time Strasburg takes the mound he’s been pushed harder than his teammate had been a year before. With the team out of contention, it made sense for them to shut down Zimmerman in 2011, but they also rushed Strasburg back for five September starts.

So the question is, why? Why rush a player back from an injury only to shut him down the following season? Why ignore statistical precedence? Why argue one method while ignoring the variables, making your rules seems completely arbitrary.

Pitching is an incredibly difficult ability to predict. Players burst onto the scene with electric stuff and take the game by storm. Doc Gooden was so good he made the Mets a potential dynasty before his arm faltered. Roger Clemens almost ended the Curse of the Bambino and Mark Prior and Kerry Wood almost brought a championship to Chicago. Here in the Bay Area we saw The Freak wow the world and give San Francisco their first World Series title. We’ve also had time to see the aftermath of those performances. Would Mets or Giants fans trade the World Series rings for a longer window of dominance from their aces? What about the Cubs and Red Sox fans who didn’t get to win it all? What about those players, would they trade one or two seasons of being the nastiest in baseball for a couple more seasons of being pretty good?

The Nationals and Stephen Strasburg have something amazing going right now. We see it in baseball maybe once or twice per decade and it doesn’t always end with a parade through the city. But it might. There are no guarantees in baseball, especially with pitcher’s arms, but shutting down Strasburg will be a disservice to the players, the fans and the game.

For two years now, Giants fans have been told of the immense talent hidden in the bat of Brandon Belt. He looks the part, has a pretty swing and would be exactly what the Giants need in the middle of the order. Unfortunately, while the potential has bubbled to the surface from time to time, Belt has yet to display the power that would take him from a solid member of a team to an impact player.

Looking at his numbers, Belt was really waiting for a chance to prove himself. That chance came earlier this year when Huff went on the disabled list and Brett Pill was sent back to Fresno. His bat would heat up with multiple starts in a row and it looked like we would finally see the promise of the 24-year old from Texas. Other than a binge of four homers in 12 days in June, Belt hasn’t been hitting home runs though. In fact, his last home run came on June 23rd. Still, the Baby Giraffe has shown a patient eye and ranks behind only Posey and Cabrera on the team in terms of reaching base.

With Sandoval joining the team today and Pence being the big bat added at the deadline, the need for a middle of the order bat has lessened. What the Giants need more are runners on base ahead of the scorching hot duo of Melky and Buster. While not a speedster, Belt can run the bases well and is definitely not a station to station player.

Maybe the solution for Belt is to place him in the #2 spot of the lineup. Here, he can take a pitch, work the count and not worry about driving the ball over the fence. Get the hits that come to him, take a walk and make sure to score from second on a single. With Pagan on fire in the leadoff spot, this lineup could be primed for a real breakout.

The other options for the second spot in the order are in the Giants middle infield. Theriot has been a popular choice but his days as a dangerous base stealer are behind him and his .316 OBP isn’t going to cut it. Scutaro has been hot as a Giant but even in that small sample, he’s on the same level in terms of getting on base as Belt. As for Crawford, I think we’ve all seen what he can do in that position and we’re not missing much.

With the pressure off of his shoulder, Belt may just find that power stroke he’s been missing since leaving Fresno. If he finds it, the Giants might see the most potent #2 hitter in their lineup since Rich Aurilia drove 35 balls over the fence batting in front of Barry Bonds.

The name of the game is scoring runs and Brandon Belt gives the Giants the best chance at doing just that. It’s time for Bochy to abandon the old idea of speed on top and put in a guy who can get on base. Even when struggling this year, Belt has maintained an ability to work the county and take a walk. Let’s play to his strengths.